The Nightmare that is Pakistan

By S.P.SETH

One thing the Obama administration has got right is that Afghanistan and Pakistan are intertwined when it comes to insurgency and terrorism in these two countries. But it still doesn’t help much when devising a coherent and effective strategy to deal with the problem.

Lately, the US has come to believe that the Taliban comprises moderates and hardliners. The first group is supposed to owe allegiance to tribal leaders and warlords, who might be swayed (with money and being left alone to exercise power in their respective fiefdoms).

The second group is supposedly much more ideological and fundamentalist, with strong links to the al-Qaeda leadership ensconced in Pakistani territory. Under the new evolving US strategy, the US will go after them by targeted missile attacks from unmanned drone aircraft and the Special Forces operations.

The problem, though, is that there is no such neat division between the moderates and hard line elements in the Taliban. Nothing in Afghanistan and Pakistan is neat and easily identified.

Indeed, the Taliban are trying to take advantage of the confusion in the United States on the ongoing debate regarding the appropriate strategy in Afghanistan. They recently posted a statement on some of their websites asserting that they are simply fighting to expel foreign invaders from Afghanistan, and to establish an Islamic state.

According to the statement, “ We didn’t have any agenda to harm other countries…nor we have such agenda today.”

It added, “If you want to turn the country [Afghanistan] into a colony, then know that we have an unwavering determination and are braced for a prolonged war.”

On surface, the statement seems innocuous enough positing them as a nationalist force trying to free their country of foreign domination and occupation. But their open assertion to establish an Islamic state is not all that innocent.

Going by the recent history of militant Islam and the ongoing crusade to right the wrongs against Muslims all around the world, an activist Islamic state will not be like any other nation state. It will not be a version of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or any of these Islamic kingdoms that are as much worried about militant Islam as is rest of the world.

Afghanistan will be a radical Islamic state. With both Afghan and Pakistan Taliban being ideological and religious twins, Pakistan will become even more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

In that sense, the Obama administration has got it right that the danger from Taliban straddles both sides of the border. But the problem is that Pakistan’s establishment, even though aware of the danger, is still refusing to accept that Taliban extremism, militancy and terrorism is an existential threat for the Pakistani state, as it exists.

If any proof were needed, the recent Taliban attack on Pakistan’s military headquarters in Rawalpindi would clinch the issue. The Pakisitani army commandos were able to flush out the Taliban but at not inconsiderable loss of life. More than that, the audacious Taliban attack on Pakistan’s military citadel is a proof of how close the Taliban have come to destabilize the Pakistani state.

But still its military establishment and opinion makers are more worried about the perceived loss of sovereignty from some performance bench marks required by the United States over its much-enhanced 5-year aid package than the existential threat they face from the Taliban.

The US, for instance, is seeking to require a “sustained commitment” against terrorism by way of “ceasing support” to terrorist groups and “dismantling terrorist bases.” The US also requires that the military should not interfere with the country’s civilian political process.

Which doesn’t seem draconian in any sense. Indeed, such commitment against terrorism is in Pakistan’s own interest, considering the way the terrorists can strike at will. The Pakistani establishment does not realize that they need all the help they can get to fight the Taliban.

And one important way of doing this is to improve the people’s living conditions for which they need civilian aid from the United States and other sources.

The majority of Pakistan’s people do not support Taliban or extremist religious parties, as has been demonstrated again and again during elections held now and then; though, lately, there has been some disturbing increase in electoral support for religious parties.

The fact is that people don’t see any hope from the established order to improve their economic and social situation. At the same time, as the Taliban and their associated groups penetrate deeper into Punjab, the heartland of the country, the people are increasingly fearful of them.

The result might be the creeping Talibanization of Pakistan, with the established political order hollowing out from within, and hammered from outside by terrorists.

The sad thing is that it is still not hitting Pakistan’s rulers that they might be on borrowed time, unless they re-think and re-fashion their old hackneyed theories and go all out against the Taliban and their associated terrorist and militant groups. Otherwise, the whole country will end up being a vast terrorist base against the world, with a population of 165 million people. This is what nightmares are made of.